进入中低速增长轨道的全球经济

The global economy has entered a medium-low growth path

经济下滑幅度超预期2019年,世界经济增速一直处于下滑之中。两年前,3/4的经济体都在加速发展,而今9/10的经济体在放慢脚步。据国际货币基金组织2019年10月发布的《世界经济展望》报告,2019年全球经济预计增长率从一年前预测的3.7%降至3%。美国布鲁金斯学会和《金融时报》以全球经济及各国的实际经济活动、金融市场和投资者信心为基础,编制了全球经济复苏追踪指数(TIGER),后者自2018年1月达到峰值后至2019年10月一直处于下跌中。彭博全球GDP跟踪指数显示,从2018年初到2019年三季度,全球经济增速已从4.7%放缓至2.2%。

The world economic growth rate has been declining in 2019.Two years ago three-quarters of economies were accelerating;now ninetenths are slowing.According to the IMF's world economic outlook released in October,the global economy is expected to grow at a rate of 3 percent in 2019,down from 3.7 percent a year earlier.While the overall global economy is slowing in 2019,the job market is stable and growing slightly.On the whole,prices in major global economies have been steadily falling.The WTO cut its forecast for trade in goods growth again in October 2019,from 2.4%to 1.2%.The reduction of 1.2 percentage points within six months is still relatively large.Once again,2019 has seen global trade grow at a slower pace than the world economy,which is usually faster than the economy.The reason for the sharp slowdown in world economic growth,short-term reasons:unilateralism and protectionism;immediate cause:insufficient global aggregate demand;mediumterm reason:monetary and fiscal policies are less effective;longterm reasons:weak labor productivity growth,etc.;the underlying reason:the gap between"strong"and"weak"keeps widening.The most immediate factor behind the 3%global growth rate in 2019,despite the slowdown,is the timely response of the major economies,in particular the absence of the recession some had predicted.For global growth in 2020,the IMF forecasts 3.4 per cent,compared with about 1.7 per cent for advanced economies.A report released a month ago by Goldman Sachs Research predicted global growth of 3.4 percent.