洗涤塔的风险在上升

The rising role and risk of scrubbers

航运公司对燃油成本的处理方式将决定他们的命运和竞争格局。对集装箱航运公司来说,在低硫燃料和高硫燃料的价差不断扩大的情况下,洗涤塔安装成为双重赌注,这将使一些公司获得成本优势,从而抢占更多的市场份额。但集运业转向洗涤塔是一种策略,因为它不仅取决于高硫燃料的价格远低于低硫燃料,还取决于监管机构不会因环保人士的警告而进一步限制洗涤塔使用的可能性。

The doubling down of container lines on scrubber installations amid a widening spread between low and high-sulfur fuel prices will allow some carriers to mitigate the operating costs tied to the IMO mandate more than rivals can, potentially spurring the former to grab market share. But the industry’s pivot to scrubbers is a gambit in that it hinges not just on high-sulfur bunker fuel prices staying significantly lower than that of low-sulfur fuels, but also the likelihood that regulators won’t further restrict scrubbers as environmentalists raise alarms. Carriers were cautious in ordering scrubbers until the last six months, when they became more confident that investing in scrubbers, costing $2 million to $3 million on newbuild vessels, held a cost advantage. As of Nov. 12, low-sulfur fuels at the port of Rotterdam were selling at $500/mt, compared to nearly $253/mt for high-sulfur fuels. In the last nine months, the share of container fleet expected to be outfitted with scrubbers before the Jan. 1 start of the International Maritime Organization’s mandate has increased from between 3 and 5 percent to 10 percent, according to IHS Markit and Mc Kinsey estimates. And more scrubber installations are on the way for 2021, according to conversations with executives at three major container lines. Closed-loop scrubbers, which are more expensive and less popular than their open-loop counterparts, retain the majority of the water used in the cleaning process to be disposed of at ports. The British Port Association last month voiced concerns about the long-term contamination risk of such sediment disposal, according to The Independent. The pushback will likely only increase even as carriers work to brandish their green credentials by investing toward longterm decarbonization goals.