基于熵权和TOPSIS法的京津冀地区综合承载力的评价研究

A Research of Comprehensive Capacity Evaluation in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei Region Based on Entropy-Weight and TOPSIS

为了准确了解京津冀地区综合承载力,深度剖析承载力的变化趋势,建立了以经济承载系统、自然资源承载系统和环境承载系统为子系统的区域综合承载力评价体系,并且运用熵权TOPSIS模型对京津冀地区2005-2017年的综合承载力进行了评价。结果表明:北京、天津的综合承载力逐年呈上升趋势,河北地区的综合承载力系数呈V字型,就发展趋势来讲,北京的综合承载力最强,河北综合承载力最弱;京津冀三地的经济承载力子系统均逐年呈上升趋势,京津冀三地的经济承载力子系统变化趋势与各自的综合承载力大致一致;河北、天津的自然资源承载力子系统呈现下降趋势,北京地区的自然资源承载力子系统呈现上升趋势,但是幅度小;京津冀三地环境承载力子系统波动趋势不大,均呈现上升趋势,但是幅度小。京津冀三地应在充分发挥地域优势的同时协调发展,继续加强经济的可持续发展,加大力度保护环境,重视自然资源的合理利用。

In order to know about the comprehensive bearing capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region accurately and analyze the trend of bearing capacity deeply,a regional comprehensive bearing capacity evaluation system is established,which consists of such subsystems as economic bearing system,natural resource bearing system and environmental bearing system.Based on entropy-weight TOPSIS model,the comprehensive bearing capacity of Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region from 2005 to 2017 is evaluated.The results show that:the comprehensive bearing capacity of Beijing and Tianjin is on the rise year by year,while the comprehensive bearing capacity coefficient of Hebei is in the shape of V.In terms of the development trend,the comprehensive bearing capacity of Beijing is the strongest,while that of Hebei is the weakest;the sub-systems of the economic carrying capacity of the three areas are on the rise year by year,and the variation trend of the economic bearing capacity of the three regions is consistent with their comprehensive bearing capacity;the natural resource carrying capacity subsystem of Hebei and Tianjin shows a downward trend,while the natural resource carrying capacity subsystem of Beijing shows an small upward trend;the fluctuation trend of the environmental load bearing subsystem in Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei is on the small rise.Coordinated development should be advocated in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region in a sustainable way,making full use of its regional advantages.Meanwhile,no efforts should be saved to protection of the environment and to rational use of natural resources.