基于或然误差模型的分布式光伏微电网储能容量优化设计

Optimal Design of Energy Storage Capacity of Distributed Photovoltaic Microgrid Based on Random Error Model

为了合理配置储能,建立一种基于或然误差分析的储能模型,根据负荷预测误差和光伏出力预测误差的随机性均满足正态分布的特点,对原模型未考虑到的随机误差进行估算,使模型计算出的结果更加准确。结合中国铁塔辽宁分公司的实例,用或然误差模型对其约为1215 m2的办公楼顶上建立的分布式光伏储能系统的容量进行设计,结合其负荷功率和光伏功率曲线验证出光伏储能系统容量配置的正确性。

The allocation of capacity of distributed photovoltaic energy storage System has always been an urgent problem to be solved,and reasonable capacity allocation plays an important role in stabilizing the power fluctuation of PCC node and smoothing the load output.In order to reasonably configure energy storage,an energy storage model was established based on the analysis of random error,which combined load prediction error and the randomness of photovoltaic output prediction error to meet the characteristics of normal distribution,and estimated the random error not considered by the original model,so that the results calculated by the model were more accurate.Combining with the example of the Liaoning branch of China Tower,the capacity of the distributed photovoltaic energy storage system established on the roof of an office building of about 1215 square meters was designed by using the random error model,and the capacity configuration of the photovoltaic energy storage system was verified by combining its load power and photovoltaic power curve.