人民币国际化的路径分析与风险防范研究

Path Analysis and Risk Prevention Research of RMB Internationalization

伴随着我国经济体制改革的持续深化和对外开放程度的稳步提高,人民币国际化成为市场选择的必然结果。当前,人民币国际化面临着资本管制、人民币利率与汇率没有真正市场化、金融发展程度低和国际收支双顺差等制约条件。针对制约条件,我国应该采取有效措施,从空间和货币职能两大维度推动人民币国际化进程。在空间上,先周边化再区域化再全球化;在货币职能上,先成为国际计价货币再成为国际投资货币再成为国际储备货币。同时,针对人民币国际化推进过程中可能存在的货币投机、央行货币政策独立性削弱、本币升值压力加大、大规模短期国际资本流入和“特里芬两难”风险,我国应该进一步深化利率和汇率市场化改革,完善金融市场监管机制和人民币汇率形成机制,从而稳步推进资本项目的开放,提升人民币的国际地位。

With the continuous deepening of China’s economic system reform and the steady improvement of opening up,RMB internationalization has become the inevitable result of market choice.At present,the internationalization of RMB is faced with capital control,RMB interest rate and exchange rate are not truly market oriented,low degree of financial development and international balance of payments double surplus and other constraints.China should take effective measures to promote the internationalization of RMB from the two dimensions of space and monetary function.In space,the first peripheral and then regionalization and then globalization;In terms of monetary functions,it first becomes an international currency of account,then an international investment currency,and then an international reserve currency.At the same time,in view of the possible currency speculation,the weakening of the central bank’s monetary policy independence,the increasing pressure of currency appreciation,large scale short term international capital inflows and the“Triffin Dilemma”risks in the process of RMB internationalization,China should further deepen the market oriented reform of interest rate and exchange rate,improve the financial market supervision mechanism and RMB exchange rate formation mechanism,so as to steadily promote the opening of capital account and enhance the international status of RMB.