多生育降低了产出吗?

Does Higher Fertility Reduce Output?

通过构建一个两部门的动态一般均衡模型,再次考察多生育对产出的影响,根据现实可行参数进行模拟研究后发现:在2050年前,如果民众按照政策生育,GDP和人均GDP分别从2018年的13.124万亿美元和0.941万美元上升到2050年间的33.301万亿美元和2.312万美元;相比基准生育情景,民众按照政策生育至少不会大幅度地降低人均GDP,相反能提升历年GDP增长率约0.427%和GDP约0.396万亿美元。进一步模拟研究后发现:改善城镇生育水平更有利于GDP的提升,甚至人均GDP的提升。考虑到当前实际生育水平,尤其当前城镇的实际生育水平远低于政策生育水平这一现实,因此我国应完善注重城镇女性职业发展的生育保险制度和出台0-3岁托幼服务等生育支持性政策。

A two-sector dynamic general equilibrium model is constructed to try to simulate the impact of higher fertility on GDP. According to the realistic feasible parameters, the simulation results show that if actual fertility level reaches the policy fertility level, total GDP and per capita GDP will rise from $13.124 trillion and $0.94 ten thousand in 2018 to $33.301 trillion and $2.312 ten thousand in 2050, respectively. Compared to the baseline fertility scenario, before 2050, if the fertility level reaches 2.0, per capita GDP will not be greatly reduced GDP and its growth rate have increased by 0.427% and $0.396 trillion US on an average over the years. Further simulation studies show that raising the fertility level of the city can improve the GDP by a large margin, even in the future, it is more likely to increase per capita GDP. Considering that the current fertility level is lower than the policy fertility level, especially the fertility level is lower in the city. The policy enlightenment of the above research lies in perfecting fertility insurance system focusing on the career development of urban women, and introducing supportive fertility policies such as 0-3 year-old childcare services.