绿色金融、经济增长与环境变化——西北地区环境指数实现“巴黎承诺”有无可能?

Green Finance, Economic Growth and Environmental Change: Is it Possible for the Environmental Index in the Northwest to Fulfill the “Paris Agreement”?

本文基于投入产出模型、EKC假说理论构建面板联立模型,以股市绿色环保概念公司子样本作为绿色金融代理变量,编制环境质量综合指数系统反映和判断绿色金融与环境变化以及经济增长的关系,参考国家层面CO2减排巴黎承诺预测西北地区环境综合指数达到峰值时间。结果表明,经济增长、环境质量与绿色金融间存在交互作用,绿色金融对环境质量显现正向效应但作用偏低。在绿色金融等因素共同作用下,西北五省区环境综合指数变动趋势除宁夏以外均符合EKC倒"N"型曲线,比照我国"在2030年达到CO2排放峰值"的减排承诺,可在该时间节点以前达到环境综合指数峰值,从而总体上向低环境污染转换。为进一步发挥绿色金融对改善生态环境的规模效应,建议降低西北地区绿色金融门槛,促进政府与社会资本向绿色产业联合投资,将西安作为绿色金融集聚城市,积极构建内陆地区绿色金融市场体系。

This paper structures a panel simultaneous equation model based on the input-output model and the EKC hypothesis by using green environmental protection concept company subsample on the stock market as the overall substitute variable of green finance, constructs comprehensive index of environmental quality system to reflect and judge the relationship among green finance, environmental change and economic growth, predicts the peak time(inflection point) of environmental composite index in Northwest China regarding commitment of CO2 emission reduction in the Paris Agreement at the national level. The results show that the interaction exists among economic growth, environmental quality and green finance. Green finance has a positive effect on environmental change, but its action is low. The variation trend of environmental comprehensive index accords with the inverted "N"-shape EKC in Northwest China except for Ningxia under the influence of green finance and other factors. In contrast to China’s emission reduction commitment " to reach the peak of CO2 emissions in 2030", it can also reach the peak of the comprehensive environmental index before the same time node to convert to low environmental pollution in general. To further develop the scale effect of green finance on improving the ecological environment, it is suggested to lower the threshold of green finance in Northwest China, promote the joint investment of government and social capital into the green industry. Taking Xi’an as a green financial agglomeration city actively constructs the green financial market system in an inland area.