基于改进线性回归方法的江苏省综合用水效率研究

Study on the comprehensive water use efficiency in Jiangsu Province based on the improved linear regression method

结合江苏省农业、工业和生活用水现状,构建以万元GDP用水量为研究目标的江苏省综合用水效率指标体系,在对数学模型理解的基础上,采用多种方法进行江苏省用水效率影响因素的辨识。通过理论分析以及专家咨询确定了21个影响因素指标,收集江苏省1997—2010年各影响因素指标数据,引入基于主成分分析的逐步回归方程进行分析,得到江苏省万元GDP用水量与其影响因素之间的响应方程式。通过回归方程可以看出,影响江苏省万元GDP用水量最重要的4个指标分别为人均灌溉面积、工业废水达标排放率、教育支出占财政支出比重、第三产业产值占GDP比重。

Combined with the current situation of agricultural,industrial and domestic water use in Jiangsu Province,a comprehensive water efficiency index system of Jiangsu Province with water consumption per 10000 GDP as the research target was constructed.Based on the understanding of mathematical models,various methods were used to analyze the factors affecting water efficiency in Jiangsu identification.Through theoretical analysis and expert consultation,21 influencing factor indicators were identified.Data of each influencing factor index in Jiangsu Province from 1997 to 2010 were collected,and a stepwise regression equation based on principal component analysis was introduced for analysis,so that the response equations between the water consumption per 10000 GDP in Jiangsu Province and its influencing factors were obtained.As a result,the major four factors have been got:irrigation area per capita,industrial waste water emission on standard,proportion education cost accounting for the financial expenditure,proportion the output value of tertiary industry accounting for the GDP.