服务业内部结构异质性演化与行业发展差距研究——基于全要素生产率视角下的分析

Analysis of Heterogeneity Evolution on Internal Structure of Service Industry and the Gap in the Development between Industries ——From the Perspective of TFP

基于1990-2017年行业面板数据,采用超越对数生产函数对服务业各细分行业TFP增长率进行分解和测度,揭示我国服务业内部结构生产率演化进程及其异质性现象,并采用可导性对数方差分解法、VAR协整模型和误差修正模型(VECM)考察TFP及其构成部分对服务业行业发展差距的贡献度,评估其异质性作用于行业发展差距的长短期效应。研究发现,在服务业内部结构演化过程中,TFP、技术进步和技术效率改进呈逐步下降趋势,其中技术进步是推动TFP增长的核心,规模效率改进发展水平一直滞后,配置效率改进在服务业发展初期较为滞后,但水平逐步提升;生产性和生活性服务业行业间TFP及构成部分异质性在演化过程中呈下降趋势,且生活性服务业行业间异质性程度要小于生产性服务业,行业间异质性变化幅度最大的是规模效率改进,技术效率改进异质性波动程度最小;TFP异质性是造成行业间发展差距扩大的主要原因,其中技术效率改进是主导因素,且该效应的发挥只有在长期具有显著性。

Based on the industry panel data from 1990 to 2017, this paper uses Translog Stochastic Frontier model to measure the TFP of the service industry from the perspective of internal structural evolution, so as to reveal the phenomenon, degree and tendency of heterogeneity. Furthermore, the paper uses the conductivity variance decomposition model, VAR model and VECM model to investigate the contribution of TFP, and estimate the heterogeneity effect in the short term and the long run. The results show that: The level of TFP, technical progress and technical efficiency are gradually decreasing. The scale efficiency change is always very low, while the allocate efficiency change is quite low in the early stage, but increase gradually later. The heterogeneity of TFP and its decomposition in the production service and consumer service industries are declining, and the heterogeneity in the consumer service is lower than produce service. The heterogeneity in scale efficiency change is higher than the other parts, and the volatility of the heterogeneity in technical efficiency is the smallest. Service TFP heterogeneity is the main reason leading to differences in the development of the industries, and technical efficiency is key element which has significant effect in the long run.