中国与“一带一路”沿线部分国家的经济关系动态分析

Dynamic Analysis of Economic Relations between China and Some Countries along the Belt and Road

GTAP(Global Trade Analysis Project)模型综合考虑了资本总量、资本流动、人口因素、国民生产总值等多项指标,可以用于各相关国的经济发展和经济合作互动关系分析.选用GTAP模型,分析了中国与一带一路沿线部分国家的经济互动关系.在西亚地区选择了沙特阿拉伯、以色列、伊朗、阿曼、阿联酋、科威特、伊拉克共7国,分别在降低关税20%和降低关税50%两种假设条件下展开实证分析.实证结果显示:在关税分别降低20%和50%两种假设条件下,中国和西亚诸国的GDP都有一定程度增加,各国之间进出口规模都有一定程度的扩大,这表明“一带一路”倡议对于沿线各国的经济发展和合作互动具有明显的促进作用.

The GTAP model takes into account a number of indicators,such as total capital,capital flow,population factors and gross national product,and can be used to analyze the interaction between economic development and economic cooperation in relevant countries.Accordingly,the GTAP model is used to analyze the economic interaction between China and some other countries along the belt and road.In Western Asia,seven countries,Saudi Arabia,Israel,Iran,Oman,United Arab Emirates,Kuwait and Iraq,were selected to carry out empirical analysis under the two hypotheses of tariff reduction by 20%and 50%.The empirical results show that under the two hypotheses of tariff reduction by 20%and 50%,GDP of China and West Asian countries has increased to a certain extent,and import and export regulations among countries have been established.Modules have a certain degree of expansion.This shows that the“belt and road”strategy has a significant role in promoting the economic development and cooperation between the countries along the route.