插口式钢管模板支架风险分析模型研究

Study on risk analysis model of socket-type tubular steel formwork supporting system

为了兼顾模板支架的安全性和经济性,提出基于结构体系可靠度分析和模糊集理论的插口式钢管模板支架方案的模糊风险分析模型。首先分析模板支架体系的失效模式,运用Monte Carlo数值模拟方法及插值法,给出模板支架体系的可靠度,进而将失效概率和失效损失系数进行模糊化,使其成为非对称三角模糊数,建立了插口式钢管模板支架模糊风险决策模型。结合实例进行分析和验证,结果表明该模型模拟结果与实际情况吻合。

As a new type of temporary structure system,the socket-type tubular steel formwork supported system was widely used in all kinds of projects with the feature of high strength supporting system and fast construction speed.In order to balance the security and economy of this kind of supporting system,the risk analysis model was proposed based on the structural reliability analysis and fuzzy set theory.The significant failure modes were analyzed,and the reliability index was obtained by the Monte Carlo simulation method and the interpolation technique.Making the failure probability and the coefficient of failure loss cost to be asymmetric triangular fuzzy number,risk analysis model of socket-type tubular steel formwork supporting system was presented.The results of one case study show that the risk analysis model is realistic and feasible.