“后伊斯兰国”时代的国际恐怖主义及其治理分析

Analysis on International Terrorism in the “Post-Islamic State” Era and Its Governance

在国际反恐联盟的军事打击下,极端组织“伊斯兰国”失去了在叙利亚和伊拉克的大本营,国际反恐由此进入了“后伊斯兰国”时代。“伊斯兰国”的溃灭,并不意味着全球反恐取得了全盘性胜利,“伊斯兰国”可能会从一个拥有地盘、行政体系和军队的半军事化恐怖组织演变为传统的常规性恐怖组织。恐怖主义的威胁不会就此停止,全球的反恐形势依旧严峻——恐怖活动的发生频率和伤亡程度大幅攀升,极端组织的活动能力和范围进一步增强。进入2019年以来,国际恐怖活动的威胁不减,恐怖分子加紧了从中东向中亚、南亚和非洲国家漫延的步伐。在未来一段时间里,随着国际性恐怖组织的分化组合和大国关系的进一步调整,国际恐怖活动仍将是影响全球安全与稳定的重要变量。防范“伊斯兰国的”死灰复燃和“外溢效应”的扩散仍然任重道远,暴力恐怖袭击或许会成为一种常态。2019年3月和4月,在新西兰和斯里兰卡首都科伦坡发生的恐怖袭击事件,是对“后伊斯兰国”时代的国际反恐形势进行研判的两个最佳判例。对国际恐怖主义的治理,主要应包括政治机会结构的把握、资源动员能力的建设和意识形态框架的构建等几个方面。

Under the military strike of the international anti-terrorist coalition,the extremist organization“Islamic State”lost its base camp in Syria and Iraq.The Political Islamic organization“Islamic State”gradually fell apart and the international antiterrorism entered the“Post-Islamic State”Era.However,defeating the“Islamic State”does not mean that the global anti-terrorism has achieved a complete victory.The“Islamic State”may evolve from a semi-military terrorist organization with territory,administrative system and military to a traditional conventional terrorist organization.The threat of terrorism will not come to an abrupt end,and the global counter-terrorism situation is still grim–the frequency of terrorist activities and the level of casualties have risen sharply,and the capacity and scope of extremist activities have been further enhanced.Since the beginning of 2019,the threat of international terrorist activities has not diminished.The terrorists have stepped up the pace of hooliganism from the Middle East to Central Asia,South Asia and Africa.The international fight against terrorism still has a long way to go.In the future,with the differentiation of international terrorist organizations and the further adjustment of relations between major powers,international terrorist activities will remain an important variable affecting global security and stability.In particular,the prevention of resurgence of“Islamic State”and the proliferation of“overflow effects”should not be underestimated,and violent terrorist attacks may become the norm.Based on the theory of social movement,this article will mainly consider the terrorist attacks in New Zealand and Sri Lanka's capital Colombo in March and April of 2019,and study the international anti-terrorism trend in the“Post-Islamic State”Era.Doctrine of governance is to think.It mainly includes the grasp of the structure of political opportunity,the construction of resource mobilization ability and the construction of ideological framework.