防范化解重大风险背景下地方政府隐性债务研究

Research on Chinese Subnational Government Implicit Debt Under the Background of Resolving Major Risk

地方政府隐性债务与金融机构有相当密切的关系,隐性债务风险不仅是财政问题、也是防范和化解金融风险的重要组成部分。文章对我国地方政府隐性债务的形成、形式进行了梳理,分析了隐性债务膨胀的原因,认为金融分权和金融市场化发挥了重要作用;运用基建投资数据对30个省、市、自治区2003—2017年隐性债务规模进行测算,发现我国地方政府隐性债务规模较大、负担较重,可能蕴含着较大风险;提出更加准确地对地方政府债务进行界定,抑制金融分权对地方政府债务膨胀的推动作用,深化金融市场改革,防范化解隐性债务风险。

Chinese subnational government implicit debt is associated with financial sector.Implicit debt burden is not only a public fiscal risk issue,but also one significant part of control and resolving major financial risks.This paper introduces formation and forms of subnational government implicit debt in China.The paper also probes into the cause of implicit debt and points out that financial decentralization and financial marketization plays significant role.By using infrastructure investment data,author estimates the amount of implicit debt in 30 provincial and municipal administrative regions during 2003 to 2018,and find that the large amount and heavy burdens subnational government implicit debt imply high risks.It is conclude that accurate definition of subnational government implicit debt,restraint of the influence of financial decentralization and deepen reform of financial markets would help to forestalling and defusing the risks of IPD.