1644—1855年间黄河决溢的时空分布规律初探

Temporal and Spatial Distribution of the Yellow River Bank-Breaches during the Years 1644-1855

历史时期,黄河下游决溢泛滥造成的灾害影响巨大。清代黄河河工体系建立以后,黄河下游河道两岸的河防工程逐步完善,两岸河防工程对河道的控制作用非常明显。将黄河决溢位置与河防堤段联系在一起,在数量统计的基础上利用核密度分析方法研究决溢地点的时空分布过程,可以发现在1644-1855年间黄河下游河段决溢位置存在两次由上游向下游移动的变化。综合分析这一规律,黄河在自然河道被人工堤岸约束之后,河道边界处受到河防工程的显著影响;河道内的河流发育过程仍然遵循自然的规律,于是决溢位置的核心分布区在时空分布上呈现一定的规律性。

In the history of China,the disasters caused by the flood of the lower reaches of the Yellow River have had a huge impact. After the establishment of the Yellow River management system in the Qing Dynasty,the river-disaster prevention and control projects on both banks of the lower reaches of the Yellow River were gradually improved,and the control effect of the projects on both sides of the river was very obvious. Based on the quantitative statistics,the kernel density estimation method is used to study the spatial and temporal distribution of the sites of the breaches. It can be found that there are two linear features,the breach-locations moved from upstream to downstream in the lower reaches of the Yellow River between 1644 and 1855. A comprehensive analysis of this phenomenon shows that the Yellow River is significantly affected by the river-disaster prevention and control projects after the natural river channel is restrained by the artificial banks. The river development process in the river still follows the natural law,so the locations of the river breaches show a certain regularity in the spatial and temporal distribution.