摘要
基于系统动力学的理论知识,结合售电侧改革对华东电网规划的影响,简要分析影响因素重要度,设计华东电网电力需求预测模型,并仿真验证模型的准确性和实用性。仿真算法预测了未来华东电网电力需求量,并通过调整权重,分析政策、市场等因素变化对未来华东电网电力需求量变化的影响。
Based on the theoretical knowledge on system dynamics,considering the influence of the sales side reform on the planning of the East China Power Grid,importance of influence factors were analyzed briefly,a power demand forecasting model was designed for the East China Power Grid,and the accuracy and practicability of the model was verified through simulation.The simulation algorithm predicted future power demand of the East China Power Grid.The influence of policy and market changes upon variations of future power demand of the East China Power Grid was analyzed through weight adjustment.
作者
张倩
聂宇本
张延迟
解大
Zhang Qian;Nie Yuben;Zhang Yanchi;Xie Da(College of Electrical Engineering,Shanghai Dianji University,Shanghai 200240,China;East China Power Grid Corp.,Shanghai 200002,China;College of Electronic Information and Electrical Engineering,Shanghai Jiao Tong University,Shanghai 200240,China)
出处
《电气自动化》
2020年第1期92-94,共3页
Electrical Automation
关键词
售电侧改革
电力需求预测
系统动力学
权重设置
政策分析
sales side reform
power demand forecasting
system dynamics
weight setting
policy analysis
