中国居民家庭能源消费研究:基于LA-AIDS模型

Household Energy Consumption in China:An Application of the LA-AIDS Model

中国是一个人口大国,居民家庭能源消费需求量很大。基于"中国家庭能源消费调查(CRECS)"数据,运用LA-AIDS模型对居民家庭能源消费结构进行了研究,并对家庭能源的支出弹性和价格弹性进行了有效测算。结果表明:随着人均真实支出的增加,居民会显著增加对电力和煤炭的消费支出比例,而显著降低对集中供暖、液化石油气及燃料油的消费支出比例。各项能源的价格和需求量之间相互影响,尤其表现为电力、液化气等现代能源对煤炭、薪柴等传统能源的替代关系。政府相关部门应立足能源清洁化发展,提高能源供给质量,推动能源价格改革,优化居民家庭能源消费结构,进而实现从传统能源消费模式向绿色低碳可持续消费模式转变。

Based on the data of "Chinese Residential Energy Consumption Survey(CRECS) ",this paper studies household energy consumption structure by using the LA-AIDS model and seemingly unrelated regression estimation. Then,we calculate the household energy consumption expenditures elasticities and price elasticities. The results show that with the increase of real expenditure per capita,households will significantly increase the consumption expenditure proportion of electricity and coal,while significantly decrease the consumption expenditure proportion of district heating,liquefied petroleum gas and fuel oils. The study also shows that the various energy prices and demand influence each other,especially the substitution of electricity and LPG for coal and firewood/straw. In order to achieve the transition from traditional energy consumption patterns to green,low-carbon sustainable consumption patterns,more attention should be paid to improving energy supply quality,promoting energy price reform and optimizing the energy consumption structure of households in the future.