汇率波动与国际收支及宏观经济关系研究

Research on the Exchange Rate Fluctuations and Its Relationship with Balance of Payments & Macroeconomy

在当前中美贸易摩擦的国际新形势和人民币汇率双向波动增强背景下,研究并评估汇率波动与国际收支平衡、跨境资金流动之间的相互关系及其对国内宏观经济的影响具有重要意义。本文选择日本、韩国、巴西、中国作为研究样本,通过实证研究分析各国货币汇率波动与国际收支状况、跨境资金流动之间的相互联系,并以此评估汇率波动对我国实体经济变量的影响,为我国继续完善汇率市场化改革与跨境资金宏观审慎管理提出政策建议。

Under the current two-way fluctuation of the RMB exchange rate,and the new international situation of escalating trade frictions between China and the United States,it is important to research the relationship between exchange rate fluctuations,the international balance of payments,and cross-border capital flows,As well as and the impact of exchange rate fluctuation on domestic macroeconomy.This paper uses Japan,South Korea,Brazil,and China as samples,analyzes empirically the correlation stated above in specific countries,the balance of payments and cross-border capital flows,and evaluates the impact of exchange rate fluctuations on China’s real economic variables,so as to provide effective and efficient suggestions for China to continue the reform on exchange rate regime and improve macro-prudential management of cross-border funds.