基于热传导原理的中国与北极国家“经济通实力”演化研究

Evolution of “Connective Power of Economic” Between China and Arctic Countries Based on the Principle of Heat Conduction

为揭示中国对北极国家经济连通性的影响规律,本文提出“经济通实力”概念,并针对不同国家间的“经济通实力”传导影响现象,探讨“经济通实力”的传导特征及原因;借鉴热传导理论构建“经济通实力”传导模型,分析2005~2017年中国对北极国家“经济通实力”的影响程度。演化结果清晰地反映了中国对北极国家经济连通性的影响程度和影响趋势变化特征:(1)随着中国“经济通实力”水平的不断提升,美国对中国的影响程度呈衰减态势;中国对加拿大、俄罗斯及北欧五国的影响程度显著上升;(2)北极航线开通后,美国对中国的影响程度增幅较小,中国对俄罗斯的影响程度保持不变,对加拿大和北欧五国的影响程度增幅较大。

In order to reveal the law of China's influence on the economic connectivity of the Arctic countries,the concept of“connective power of economic”is first proposed,and then the“connective power of economic”transmission influence phenome⁃non among different countries is discussed,and the transmission characteristics and causes of“connective power of economic”are discussed.Secondly,it draws on the theory of heat conduction to construct the“connective power of economic”transmission mo⁃del,and analyzes the degree of China's influence on the“connective power of economic”of the Arctic countries in 2005-2017.The evolution results clearly reflect China's influence on the economic connectivity of the Arctic countries and the changing charac⁃teristics of the impact trends:(1)with the continuous improvement of China's“connective power of economic”level,the degree of influence of the United States on China is gradually decreasing;China's influence on Canada,Russia and the Nordic countries is increasing.(2)After the opening of the Arctic route,China's influence on the“connective power of economic”of the Arctic countries varies.The degree of influence of the United States on China has increased slightly.The degree of influence of China on Russia has remained the same,and the degree of influence on Canada and the five Nordic countries has increased significantly.