要素集聚对我国城市技术进步的影响分析——基于OLS模型与门槛模型的实证研究

The Influence of Factor Agglomeration on China’s Urban Technology Progress——An Empirical Study of OLS Model and Threshold Model

本文以我国285个地级市为研究对象,在使用OLS模型考察要素集聚与城市技术进步的线性关系基础上,运用门槛模型进一步探究要素集聚程度与城市技术进步的非线性关系。OLS模型回归结果表明,劳动力集聚对城市技术进步产生拥挤效应,物质资本集聚及人力资本集聚均带来规模效应,但物质资本集聚尚处在规模扩张的低层次阶段。不同生产要素集聚的影响差异,揭示了城市技术进步的增长路径需从传统要素集聚向人力资本等创新要素集聚转变,为我国创新驱动战略提供经验支撑。门槛模型回归结果显示,要素集聚与技术进步间存在显著非线性关系。以就业密度为门槛变量存在单一门槛效应,随着就业密度所在区间规模的提高产生更严重的拥挤效应。以人均物质资本为门槛变量存在双重门槛效应,低水平的物质资本集聚对技术进步产生显著负向影响,中高水平的物质资本集聚带来显著规模效应。门槛模型强化了普通面板模型的结论,进一步揭示了我国城市发展阶段和水平的差异,物资资本集聚水平高的发达城市已率先进入了投资驱动和创新驱动两者良性互动的高质量发展阶段。

By taking Chinese 285 cities as a sample,this article uses the OLS model to investigate the linear relationship be⁃tween factor agglomeration and urban technological progress,and uses the threshold model to further explore the nonlinear relation⁃ship between the factor agglomeration scale and urban technological progress.The regression results of OLS model show that labor agglomeration has a congestion effect on urban technological progress.Both physical capital agglomeration and human capital ag⁃glomeration bring scale effect,but physical capital agglomeration is still at a low level of scale expansion.The difference in the in⁃fluence of different factor agglomeration reveals that China's urban development is shifting from factor-driven to investment-driven and to innovation-driven,revealing the growth path of urban technological progress needs to change from the aggregation of tradi⁃tional elements to the accumulation of innovative factors such as human capital,providing empirical support for China's innovationdriven strategy.In addition,the regression results of the threshold model show that there is a significant nonlinear relationship be⁃tween factor agglomeration and technological progress.There is a single threshold effect with the employment density as the thres⁃hold,and the more congestion effect is brought about with the increase of the level of employment density.The threshold of per ca⁃pita physical capital has a double threshold effect.The low level of physical capital agglomeration has a significant negative impact on technological progress,and the medium and high level of physical capital agglomeration brings a significant scale effect.The threshold model strengthens the conclusions of the ordinary panel model,and further reveals the differences in the stage and level of urban development in China.The developed cities with high levels of physical capital agglomeration have taken the lead in entering the high-quality development stage of investment-driven and innovation-driven benign interaction.