农业指数保险定价模型的研究进展及改进策略

Progresses and Prospects in the Research on Pricing Models of Agricultural Index Based Insurance

农业指数保险是一种新型的农业保险产品,在农业风险管理中具有独特的优势和应用价值,但同时也在风险建模和费率厘定中面临着一系列挑战,近年来受到业界和学界的广泛关注。区域产量保险和天气指数保险是目前应用最为广泛的两种农业指数保险,它们在风险定价中面临的挑战主要包括经验数据不足、不同风险之间相依关系复杂、普遍存在基差风险等。通过对区域产量风险建模、天气指数构造及其分布拟合、农业相依风险建模、基差风险度量和控制等方面对相关研究成果的系统梳理和评述,指出了现有定价模型存在的不足和未来研究需要重点关注的问题,对于进一步完善农业指数保险的风险建模方法,提高农业指数保险定价结果的合理性和准确性具有重要现实意义。

Index based insurance is a new type of agricultural insurance which plays an important role in agriculture risk management which has caused considerable amount of interest in industry and academia.Area yield insurance and weather index insurance are two most popular kinds of index based insurance.However,they also face many challenges in pricing and application,such as,lack of historical data,complex independence structure,and inherent basis risks.It systematically reviews recent studies on area yield modeling,weather index designing,dependent risk modeling and basis risk measuring,summaries the shortcomings of these existing pricing models,and then proposes some suggestions to tackle these problems.