中国宏观经济形势分析与前瞻

Analysis of and Prospects for China’s Macroeconomy

当前国际政治和经济形势正在发生深刻变化,迎来百年未有之大变局。在全面建成小康社会、打赢脱贫攻坚战之后,中国应当继续夯实成果,制定中等收入群体倍增计划,激发中国经济的内在活力,释放中长期增长潜力。针对高收入人群和中等收入人群,我们应当看到他们在医疗、教育、汽车、住房等诸多领域有着大量需求尚未被满足,而这些需求不同于一般产品,是复杂需求,具有较强的外部性。释放出这些人在小康社会中向往美好生活的各类需求,需要更加积极地培育市场,加快提升治理体系和治理能力现代化的程度。针对低收入人群,在打赢脱贫攻坚战之后,应该用三个五年规划,再帮助4亿人口从较低收入人群迈入中等收入人群,打赢中等收入群体倍增的攻坚战。我们预测这一计划将能每年至少拉动0.7~0.75个百分点的GDP增长,将为中国经济的高质量发展提供长期动力。

The current international political and economic makeup is undergoing profound and unprecedented changes.After building a moderately prosperous society in all aspectsand winning the battle against poverty,China should continue to strive for further achievements,formulate a plan for doubling the size of the middle-income group,stimulate the internal vitality of the Chinese economy,and release the growth potential over the middle to long term.For the middle and upper-income groups,it is clear that many demands have still not been met,such as medical care,education,automobiles,and housing,which are different from general products.These are complex demands with strong significant externalities.To release these demands where people yearn for a better life in a moderately prosperous society,it is necessary to more actively cultivate the market and accelerate the degree of modernization of governance capabilities.After winning the battle against poverty,China should use three five-year plans to help 400 million people move from lower-income groups to the middle-income group,thereby winning the battle to double the size of the middle-income group.We predict that this plan will add at least 0.7-0.75 percentage points of GDP growth every year,and will provide long-term momentum for the high-quality development of the Chinese economy.