中美贸易摩擦背景下我国国际收支结构的稳健性和趋势性分析

An Analysis of Robustness and Trend of China’s Balance of Payments Structure under the Background of Sino-US Trade Friction

随着我国金融市场不断加强对外开放,外部环境对我国金融市场的冲击也在不断增加,特别是近年来中美贸易摩擦不断升温,我国国际收支结构面临着前所未有的冲击。从近年来国际收支结构特征和政策演化趋势分析,特别是中美贸易摩擦升温以来的数据显示,短期跨境资金流动和外汇储备资产变动趋势存在明显联动特征。为此,构建国际收支结构特征动态监测指标体系,有利于增强对我国国际收支结构的理解,并为分析中国经济增长模式提供参考。

With continuous strengthening of China’s financial market opening to the outside world, the impact of external environment on China’s financial market is also increasing.Especially in recent years, trade friction between China and the United States has been heating up, and China’s balance of payment structure is facing unprecedented impact. The analysis of balance of payments structure and policy evolution trend in recent years, especially the data from the rise of Sino-US trade friction, shows that there are obvious linkage characteristics of short-term cross-border capital flow and change trend of foreign exchange reserve assets.Therefore, the construction of dynamic monitoring index system for the characteristics of balance of payments structure is helpful to enhance the understanding of China’s balance of payments structure and provide a reference for the analysis of China’s economic growth model.