基于概率分析对粘土边坡勘查取样间隔的论证

Demonstration on sampling interval of clay slope exploration based on probability analysis

文中以简化的均质粘土边坡为例,应用蒙特卡罗法对土体强度随机分布对边坡稳定性的影响进行了模拟研究。计算结果显示,土体强度的随机分布不会改变边坡的平均安全系数(本文边坡为1.14),但当土体强度分布的变异系数大于0.1时,边坡即有失效的可能性;减小勘查中土体的取样间隔,可以降低相同土体强度变异系数条件下边坡的失效概率,实际工程中土体勘查取样间隔应依据工程重要性、场址地质条件来确定。

Taking a simplified homogeneous clay slope as an example, the paper simulates the influence of random distribution of soil strength on slope stability by using the monte carlo method.The calculated results show that the random distribution of soil strength will not change the average safety factor of the slope, but when the variation coefficient of soil strength distribution is greater than 0.1, the slope is likely to fail.The failure probability of slope under the condition of the same strength variation coefficient of soil mass can be reduced by reducing the sampling interval of soil mass in exploration. The interval of soil exploration and sampling should be determined according to the importance of the project and the geological conditions of the site.