基于系统动力学模型的中国汽车工业废杂铝回收分析

Analysis of Waste Aluminum Recovery in China’s Automobile Industry Based on System Dynamic Model

通过建立系统动力学模型,对我国汽车工业废杂铝的回收情况进行分析.当汽车平均使用寿命为12年时,2025年我国废旧汽车年回收量为2459.92万辆,汽车年回收铝含量为182.42万t;当汽车平均使用寿命为15年时,2025年我国废旧汽车年回收量为2172.75万辆,汽车年回收铝含量为134.59万t,通过回收废旧汽车将节约铝土矿354.18万t.若提高汽车含铝加工材回收比例、汽车铸件年回收比例和汽车铸件年再制造比例,使其分别为0.9,0.61和0.3,2025年我国废旧汽车年回收铝含量为160.25万t.回收利用废旧汽车中的废杂铝将在一定程度上缓解我国铝资源短缺问题,同时降低废杂铝对外依赖程度.

Analysis of waste aluminum recovery in China’s automobile industry was carried out by a system dynamic model.When the average service life of the automobile assumes to be 12 years,the annual recycling number of the used automobiles in China will be 24.5992 million and the annual recovered aluminum weight from these automobiles will be 1.8242 million tons in 2025.It would be 21.7275 million for the annual recycling number and 1.3459 million tons for the annual recovered aluminum if the average service life of the automobiles becomes 15 years.Meanwhile,there will be 3.5418 million tons of bauxite saved from the recycling.After considering that the recycling ratio of aluminum-containing processed materials,the annual recycling ratio of automobile castings and the annual remanufacturing ratio of automobile castings are 0.9,0.61 and 0.3,respectively,the annual recovered aluminum of the used automobiles can reach 1.6025 million tons in 2025.It is very helpful to alleviate the shortage of aluminum resources in China and reduce the external dependence of waste scrap aluminum.