东道国需求与我国对外投资区位选择——基于“一带一路”沿线国家的定量研究

The Demand of Host Countries and Location Selection of Chinas ODI:Based on the Quantitative Study of

2013年"一带一路"倡议提出后,我国对外直接投资水平得到了显著提升,已经成为世界第二大对外直接投资国。相较于已有文献大多从供给方视角出发,文章创新性地从需求方--"一带一路"沿线各国和地区对ODI的需求出发,结合引力模型和时变随机前沿模型研究东道国自身投资需求对我国对外直接投资区位选择的影响。研究表明:东盟、欧盟、金砖国家以及拥有自然资源的中东国家应该成为我国对外投资发展的优先方向和重点地区。据此,结合沿线各国和地区的经济发展规划提出我国对外投资区位选择的对策建议。

Since the Belt and Road Initiative was proposed in 2013,the level of China's ODI has been significantly en⁃hanced,making China the second largest economics in terms of overseas direct investment.Instead of the perspective of the supply side from the existing literature,this paper focuses on the demand side from the host countries and regions.This paper combines the gravity model and time-varying stochastic frontier model to estimate the influence of host coun⁃tries􀆳demand of investment on China's ODI location selection.The results show that ASEAN,EU,BRICS and the Middle East countries with sufficient natural resources should be the priority areas for the development of China's ODI.Accord⁃ingly,on the basis of the economic development strategies of those major countries,relevant recommendations are given to explore the location selection of China's ODI in future.