贸易便利化与我国跨境电商发展——基于双重差分法的实证分析

Trade Facilitation and the Development of Chinas Cross-border E-commerce:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Double Difference Method

文章利用中国跨境电子商务综合试验区建设的准自然实验,基于2012-2017年中国36个大中城市面板数据,运用双重差分法系统评估和检验了中国跨境电子商务综合试验区建设对跨境电商发展的影响及其影响机制。回归结果表明,贸易便利化政策促进了跨境电商的发展,各项稳健性检验证明了研究结论的可靠性;影响机制分析结果表明便利化的政策措施是通过提升信息化水平和经济发展水平来促进跨境电商发展的,且政策效果与当地总体发展水平密切相关。因而,中国应亟须深化贸易便利化改革,为跨境电商的发展构建更加完善而高效的制度体系。

Using the establishment of Cross-border Ecommerce Experimental Zones in China as a quasi-natural experiment,a Difference-in-Difference(DID)study was conducted on panel data collected on 36 large and medium-sized cities in the 2012-2017 period,so as to evaluate the effect of such experimental zones on the development of cross-border ecommerce.Regression results indicate that trade facilitation policies embodies in these experimental zones significantly promote cross-border ecommerce development.Robustness tests were also conducted to ensure the reliability of the results.In addition,path analysis was carried out,which shows that such policies impact local cross-border ecommerce by promoting local ICT penetration and aggregate local economic development.As a result,further trade facilitation policies are recommeoded in order to establish a nurturing and efficient institutional framework for cross-border ecommerce development.