中美贸易战对美国农业经济的影响及前景展望

Impact of Sino-US Trade War on US Agricultural Economy and Its Prospect

自2018年3月起,由美国单方面挑起的中美贸易战不仅给全球经济增长带来严重损害,也对美国经济尤其是其农业经济造成不利影响。深入分析了美国对中国农产品出口现状,具体阐述了中美贸易摩擦对美国农产品对中国出口及美国农场造成的影响,对农产品对中国出口的影响主要体现在美国大豆、棉花、小麦、玉米、猪肉、奶制品等农产品出口量的持续下降;对美国农场的影响体现在农场净收入的不断减少、产权比率及资产负债率的不断上升、农场破产数量攀升、政府补贴难以弥补农民损失等4个方面。在此基础上,对未来中美贸易关系演变及美国农业经济发展走向进行展望,分析了中美贸易战对美国农业补贴政策及美国农民、美国农业生产、美国农产品出口等方面的长期影响。

From March 2018, the Sino-US trade war which unilaterally provoked by the United States not only caused serious damage to global economic growth, but also affected its domestic economy adversely. This paper analyzed the status quo of American agricultural products export to China, elaborated the impact of Sino-US trade friction on US agricultural exports and American farms. The impact on exports was mainly reflected in the continuous decline in agricultural products export to China from US such as soybean, cotton,wheat, maize, pork and milk products. The impact on farms was reflected in the continuous decline in farm net income, the rising equity ratio and asset-liability ratio, the increase in farm bankruptcy, and the difficulty of government subsidies to compensate farmers’ losses. Based on this, it was looked forward to the future evolution of Sino-US trade relations and the development trend of the US agricultural economy, and the long-term impact of the Sino-US trade war on US agricultural subsidy policies and American farmers, US agricultural production and US agricultural exports were analyzed.