交通基础设施、生产性服务业发展与经济集聚——基于空间杜宾模型的实证研究

Transport Infrastructure,Producer Services and Economic Agglomeration:An Empirical Analysis Based on the Spatial Durbin Model

本文利用2005~2016年全国286个地级及以上城市数据,运用空间杜宾模型实证检验交通基础设施通过生产性服务业发展对经济集聚的影响。研究发现:从全国整体来看交通基础设施显著促进了经济集聚,不同地区的交通基础设施和生产性服务业发展呈现出明显的空间梯度性,从而对经济集聚的影响存在异质性;随着中国经济从工业化阶段逐渐迈进城市化阶段,交通基础设施、生产性服务业发展对经济效应的影响由集聚效应转变为扩散效应;交通基础设施、生产性服务业专业化和多样化发展对经济集聚的影响受到城市规模的约束,多样化对大城市作用显著,而专业化对中小城市作用显著。交通基础设施通过生产性服务业差异化发展对经济集聚产生不同的影响,本文的研究为中国城市发展路径的选择提供了新的思路和政策参考。

This paper uses the spatial Durbin model to test the impact of transportation infrastructure on economic agglomeration through the development of producer services based on the data of 286 cities from 2005 to 2016.Research shows that transport infrastructure significantly promotes economic agglomeration at the national level.Transport infrastructure and producer services in different regions present obvious spatial echelon,which will have heterogeneous impact on economic agglomeration.As China moves from the stage of industrialization to the urbanization,the influence of the development of transport infrastructure and producer services on the economic effect changes from the agglomeration effect to the diffusion effect.The influence of transport infrastructure,specialization and diversification of producer services on economic agglomeration is restricted by city scale.The diversification plays a significant role in large cities,while the specialization plays a significant role in small and medium-sized cities.The transport infrastructure has different effects on economic agglomeration through differentiated development of producer services,which provides new ideas and policy references for urban development path selection in China.