全球变化下的跨境水资源科学调控与利益共享研究

Research Advances of Scientific Regulation and Benefit Sharing on Cross-border Water Resources under Global Change

全球变化影响下,跨境水安全与生态安全问题突出,是地球系统科学的重要研究内容.选择澜沧江湄公河为核心,兼顾其他国际河流,开展全球变化下的跨境水资源科学调控与利益共享研究,在跨境流域尺度上,主要取得了以下进展:(1)跨境水资源利益共享及安全调控科学基础的构建.判识了季风交汇区域气候变化对流域降水的影响;明晰了径流变化的归因、跨境影响及生态效应;完善了跨境水资源多级权属的理论和方法体系;构建了水生态经济价值评估指标体系;筛选出跨境水资源分配指标并进行了多目标分配;研究了水利益共享评估方法以及生态补偿机制.(2)跨境水资源利益共享与安全调控模拟技术的研发.建立了跨境流域水资源利用效应的量化评估模型;系统评估了气候变化和水库调度的水文及生态效应;构建了水能粮食生态关联关系模型.(3)跨境水资源利益共享与安全调控的法理基础及权益保障机制的建立.提出了对《跨境水道非航行使用法公约》的互惠性解释;确定了国际水法规则量化表达的方法与路径,明确了促进利益平衡共享的关键因素及法理基础;厘清现行国际水法体系应对全球变化的不足;提出一套空间均衡的跨境水资源水权分配理论和方法.

Influenced by global changes,the issues of cross border water security and ecological security are prominent,which are important research contents of the earth system science.Choosing Lancang-Mekong River as core and taking other international rivers into consideration,the research on the scientific regulation and benefit sharing on cross-border water resources under global change are carried out.On the cross-border watershed scale,the following advances has been made:(1)Constructing the scientific basis of cross-border water resources benefit sharing and security regulation.The impacts of climate change on precipitation in the confluence area of monsoons were recognized.The attributions and cross-border hydrological and ecological effects of flow changes were studied.The theory and methods of multi-level ownership on cross-border water resources were improved.The economic evaluation on aquatic ecology were constructed.Indicators were selected for multiobjective allocation on cross-borcler water resources.The assessment method of water benefit sharing and the ecological compensation mechanism were studied.(2)Research on the simulation technology of cross-border water resources benefit sharing and security control.A quantitative assessment model for cross-border water resources utilization was constructed.The hydrological and ecological effects of climate change and reservoir were assessed.The model of water-energyfood-ecology nexus was constructed.(3)Establishment of legal basis and benefits guaranteeing mechanism for cross-border water resources benefit sharing and security regulation.Reciprocal interpretation on the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Non・Navigational Uses of International Watercourses were proposed.The methods for the quantitative expression of international water law rules were determined,and the key factors and legal basis for promoting balanced benefit sharing were studied.The deficiency of the current international water law system in response to global changes were clarified.Spatially balanced theory and methods for cross-border water rights allocation were proposed.