地貌单位线在卡洛特水电站洪水预报中的运用

Application of Geomorphic Unit Line in Flood Forecasting of Karot Hydropower Station

为了解决在卡洛特水电站洪水预报中面临的大流域无或缺水文资料的难题,寻找一种能确保预报精度的有效预报方法。通过采用90m分辨率的DEM数据,用Arc GIS软件提取地貌参数,构建基于统计物理学的地貌单位线。选用2017~2018年流域内发生的2场全流域洪水进行汇流模拟,结果表明:地貌单位线在集水面积大于2000 km2的流域也可取得较好的汇流模拟效果。地貌单位线可成为解决该流域无或缺资料区域洪水预报问题的有效方法。

In order to solve the problem of without or lacking hydrological data in large watershed in flood forecasting of Karot Hydropower Station,an effective forecasting method to ensure the accuracy of forecasting is sought.By using DEM data with 90 m resolution and Arc GIS software to extract geomorphic parameters,geomorphic unit line based on statistical physics is constructed.Two floods occurred in the whole basin from 2017 to 2018 were selected to carry out the confluence calculation.Geomorphological unit line can also achieve good simulation results in watersheds with catchment area larger than 2000 km2.Geomorphic unit line can be an effective way to solve the problem of flood forecasting in areas without or lacking data in the basin.