人口老龄化、城乡居民养老保险与居民消费——基于省际面板数据的实证分析

Aging Population,Pension Insurance for Urban and Rural Residents and Residents’ Consumption——An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data

基于消费理论,结合我国日益严重的人口老龄化现状以及城乡居民养老保险的发展,构建多元线性回归模型,并选取2012-2015年的省际面板数据进行实证研究.结果显示:养老保险的覆盖率对居民消费为负效应,替代率对居民消费为正效应;劳动人口比与老年人口抚养比对居民消费均为正效应;老年抚养比与劳动人口比增加会强化养老保险发展对消费水平的效应.针对这些与理论预测并不相符的结果,进行了解释并提出政策建议:(1)应该进一步深化城乡居民养老保险制度的改革;(2)尽快出台延退的相关规定,同时坚持"全面二孩"政策的推广实施.

Based on the consumption theory,this paper combines the growing population aging situation in China with the development of urban and rural residents’ pension insurance system to build a multivariate linear regression model,and selects provincial panel data from 2012 to 2015 to conduct empirical research. The results show that: the coverage of pension insurance has a negative effect on household consumption,and the substitution rate is a positive effect;the ratio of old-age dependency ratio to the labor force has a positive effect on household consumption;the ratio of old-age dependency ratio to the labor force increases the development of old-age insurance. These results are inconsistent with the theoretical predictions,so this paper analyzes and proposes the following policy recommendations:( 1) It should continue to deepen the reform of the pension insurance system for urban and rural residents;( 2) Relevant provisions for delays should be introduced as soon as possible,and at the same time,implement the"comprehensive two-child"policy.