基于地形因子的天山降水估算

Estimation of Precipitation in Tianshan Mountains Based on Topographic Factors

地形对山区降水的形成、发展过程起着重要作用。针对天山山区气象站点稀少,难以深入认识山区降水空间分布格局及其机理的问题,基于气象站点降水资料,结合经度、纬度、海拔、坡度、坡向、地形起伏度和地形开阔度等7个地形因子作为主成分分析指标,运用主成分逐步回归法建立了天山山区降水估算模型。结果表明:模型能够很好地反映天山降水特征及季节变化,回归效果较显著,在模拟天山降水方面有一定适用性。冬季模拟效果最好,偏差范围在-10~10 mm。夏季模拟偏差较大,偏差范围在-13~18 mm。

Topography plays an important role in the formation and development of precipitation in mountain areas.In view of the scarcity of meteorological stations in Tianshan Mountains,it is difficult to deeply understand the spatial distribution pattern and mechanism of precipitation in mountainous areas.Based on the precipitation data of meteorological stations and considered seven topographic factors such as longitude,latitude,elevation,slope,aspect,relief and topographic openness as principal component analysis indicators,this paper establishes the precipitation estimation model in Tianshan Mountains by the principal-component stepwise regression method.The results show that the model can well reflect the precipitation characteristics and seasonal variations in Tianshan Mountains,with remarkable regression effect,which is applicable to simulating precipitation in Tianshan Mountains.The simulation results in winter are the best,with the deviation range of-10 mm to 10 mm.The simulation deviations in summer are large,ranging from-13 mm to 18 mm.