地下水脆弱性评价的误差来源和不确定性分析理论研究

Study on the Error Sources and Uncertainty Analysis of Groundwater Vulnerability Assessment

通过地下水脆弱性评价,可以更有目的性和针对性地对地下水系统采取保护措施,将有限的人力和资金投入到容易被污染的地区,提高对地下水资源的保护效率。阐释了地下水脆弱性的概念,分析了地下水脆弱性评价的误差来源,阐明了不确定性分析的重要作用,着重分析了一阶不确定性分析方法在地下水脆弱性评价数据不确定性分析中的应用,并说明了地下水脆弱性评价不确定性分析的难点和不足之处。该研究可为地下水脆弱性评价的不确定性分析研究提供科学的指导和理论支撑。

Through groundwater vulnerability assessment,more efficient and targeted protective measures can be taken into groundwater system,and the limited human resources and funds can be allocated to regions with higher pollution risks to improve the protection efficiency of groundwater resources.This paper introduces the concept of groundwater vulnerability,error sourcesof groundwater vulnerability assessment,significance of assessment uncertainty analysis,application of the first order uncertainty analysis method to groundwater vulnerability assessment and the difficulties and shortages of the uncertainty analysis,which can provide scientific guide and theoretical support to the study on uncertainty analysis of groundwater vulnerability assessment.