基于健康指数相似的航空发动机剩余寿命预测

Residual Life Prediction of Aeroengine Based on Health Index Similarity

针对机载快速存取记录器(QAR)详细记录了发动机全周期多源性能参数的特点,提出了一种基于时间序列相似性匹配的航空发动机剩余寿命预测方法。首先通过相关分析选取与发动机性能衰退密切相关的参数,利用狄克松判定准则剔除原始数据异常值,将多个性能参数通过状态空间模型融合为健康指数来表征发动机衰退状态;然后通过K-means聚类分析法重构发动机健康指数序列;最后计算序列之间的相似度,依据相似度大小赋予参照样本不同权重预测发动机剩余寿命。通过航空公司实际数据对该方法进行验证,结果表明该方法具有较好的预测精度。

Aiming at the characteristics of engine full-cycle multi-source performance parameters for quick access recorder(QAR),a method for predicting the remaining life of aeroengine based on time series similarity matching is proposed.Firstly,the parameters related to engine performance degradation were selected by correlation analysis.The original data outliers were eliminated by Dixon criterion.The performance parameters are transformed into the health index by the states-pace model to represent the engine decay state.Then,the engine health index sequence by K-means clustering was reconstructed;finally,the similarity between the sequences was calculated,and the residual life of the engine was predicted by different weights of the reference samples according to the similarity magnitude.The method had been verified by the actual data of the airline.The results show that the method has better prediction accuracy.