人口结构变动对经常账户的影响——基于面板VAR模型的实证分析

The Impact of Demographic Changes on Current Account:An Empirical Analysis Based on Panel VAR Model

在我国人口结构性矛盾日益突出以及国际收支失衡的背景下,笔者试图从人口结构变动的视角对我国经常账户长期顺差的原因进行解释,通过构建面板VAR模型,基于我国大陆31个省份1998—2016年的面板数据,实证分析人口结构变动对经常账户的影响。研究结果表明:从整体来看,总抚养比对经常账户存在正向冲击,总抚养比的上升会提高经常账户余额占GDP的比重,但该冲击存在一定的滞后性;老年抚养比与少儿抚养比对经常账户的冲击存在差异,在短期内老年抚养比会对经常账户产生正向冲击,长期来看冲击变为负向;少儿抚养比对经常账户的冲击呈现出先负向后正向的特征。基于上述研究结果,笔者认为在未来我国抚养比可能持续上涨的情况下,经常账户盈余仍会长期存在。此外,由老年抚养比和少儿抚养比得出的不同结论,有利于总结年龄构成不同的家庭储蓄和投资等行为的规律,同时也对相关政策的制定具有重要的借鉴意义。

Under the background of the increasingly prominent structural contradiction of China s population and the imbalance of international payments,this paper attempts to explain the reasons for China s long-term current account surplus from the perspective of demographic changes.Based on the panel data of 31 pro-vinces and cities from 1998 to 2016,this paper uses panel VAR model to analyze the impact of demographic changes on the current account.The results show that:(1)In general,there is a positive impact on the current account from total dependency ratio,and the increase of total dependency ratio will increase the proportion of the current account balance in GDP,but the impact has a certain lag;(2)There are differences about the impact between the elderly dependency ratio and the children s dependency ratio on current account.In the short term,the elderly dependency ratio will have a positive impact on the current account,but in the long term,the impact will become negative.However,the impact of the children s dependency ratio on the current account is negative first,backward and positive later.The above findings show that China s current account surplus will still exist for a long time in the future while China s dependency ratio may continue to rise.In addition,the different conclusions of the elderly dependency ratio and the young children s dependency ratio are helpful to summarize the rules of saving and investment behaviors of families with different age composition,and have important reference significance for the formulation of relevant policies.