新能源汽车动力电池报废量估算和资源潜力分析

Quantity Prediction and Resources Potential Analysis of Spent Lithiumion Battery of New Energy Automobile

中国新能源汽车销量不断增长,报废动力电池的回收利用问题亟待解决。本文运用Weibull分布构建动力电池寿命分布和报废量估算模型,估算动力电池报废量和潜在资源量,从资源供给和环境保护角度阐释报废动力电池的资源价值。结果显示,2020年报废量接近40万t,2023年将超过100万t。2023年,累计资源保有量为174.5万t,2023年潜在资源总量为55.9万t,其中包括锂1.7万t、镍8.0万t、钴1.5万t,资源回收价值340亿元,对锂、钴资源的回收将缓解中国锂和钴的资源供给压力。

In recent years,China’s new energy automobile sales have continued to grow,spent lithium-ion battery recycling problem urgently needs to be solved.In this paper,Weibull distribution is used to build an estimation model of lithium-ion battery life distribution and scrap quantity,to estimate the quantity and potential resource quantity of power battery,and to explain the resource value of spent lithium-ion battery from the perspective of resource supply and environmental protection.The result shows that the scrap amount is nearly 400000 t in 2020 and will exceed 1 million t in 2023.In 2023,the accumulated resource holding amount is 1745 thousand tons,and the total potential resource amount is 559000 tons,including 17000 tons of lithium,80000 tons of nickel and 15000 tons of cobalt.The resource recovery value is 34 billion yuan.The recovery of lithium and cobalt resources will relieve the supply pressure of lithium and cobalt resources in China.