退出预期影响风险投资进入决策的实物期权模型

The Impact of Exit Expectation on VCs’ Entry Decision: A Real Option Model

【目的/意义】良好的退出市场是风险投资产业持续健康发展的关键。【设计/方法】考虑IPO和清算两种相互作用的退出方式,构建了同时考虑风险投资退出和进入的两阶段实物期权决策模型,重点分析了退出预期对风险投资进入决策的影响。【结论/发现】企业成功IPO速度的增加不仅使得风险投资不愿意选择清算,而且还会激励其进入企业的早期阶段;无论是IPO还是清算,退出回报的增加对风险投资的进入具有激励作用;高的持股比例使得风险投资更加可能等待IPO而非清算退出,同时更加能够激励风险投资尽早进入。此外,企业未来现金流的波动对风险投资的进入具有延缓作用,但延缓作用会因现金流预期增长率的增加而减弱。研究结果为宏观层面资本市场和风险投资产业的互动规律提供了一种微观的理论支撑。

【Purpose/Significance】A good exitable market is the key to the sustainable and healthy development of the venture capital industry.【Design/Methodology】Considering two interactive exit ways for VCs,IPO and liquidation,the paper develops a two-stage real option model to study the exit and entry decisions and then focuses on how the entry decision for VCs is affected by exit expectation in future.【Findings/Conclusion】The results show that the acceleration of IPO pace makes VCs not only become more reluctant to exit via liquidation but also be more willing to invest in earlier stages of emerging firms,and the increase of exit return also encourages VCs to invest early whether they eventually exit via IPO or liquidation.For VCs with higher shareholdings,they are more likely to wait for IPO rather than exit via liquidation,which also eventually leads VCs to be more willing to invest in earlier stage of firms.In addition,fluctuations in the future cash flow of the enterprise have a delaying effect on the entry of venture capital,but the delaying effect will be weakened by the increase in the expected growth rate of cash flow.The research results provide a micro theoretical support for the interaction between the capital market and the venture capital industry at the macro level.