城市物流能源消费影响因素研究

Research on the Factors Affecting Urban Logistics Energy Consumption

【目的/意义】基于1995~2015年天津城市物流和能源消费相关统计数据,旨在揭示城市物流对能源消费的依赖程度以及城市物流能源消费水平。【设计/方法】采用单位根、协整检验和格兰杰因果检验等计量经济学方法实证分析天津城市物流与能源消费间的关系。【结论/发现】天津城市物流客货周转量、客货运量、产业增加值和运输线路长度与城市物流能源消费同方向变动;天津城市物流运输线路长度与能源消费互为格兰杰因果关系,能源消费是客货运量的格兰杰原因。能源消费是天津城市物流发展的基础,天津城市物流发展依赖于能源消费,天津城市物流能源消费存在着长期稳定的均衡关系。

【Purpose/Significance】Based on the statistical data of urban logistics and energy consumption in Tianjin from 1995 to 2015,this paper aims to reveal the dependence of urban logistics on energy consumption and the level of urban logistics energy consumption.【Design/Methodology】Empirical analysis of the relationship between Tianjin urban logistics and energy consumption using econometric methods such as unit root,cointegration test and Granger causality test.【Findings/Conclusion】Tianjin urban logistics passenger and cargo turnover,passenger and freight volume,industrial added value and transportation route length change in the same direction as urban logistics energy consumption.The length of Tianjin's urban logistics transportation line and energy consumption are Granger causality,and energy consumption is the Granger reason for passenger and cargo volume.Energy consumption is the basis of the development of Tianjin urban logistics.The development of Tianjin urban logistics depends on energy consumption.There is a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between the energy consumption and Tianjin urban logistics.