中国和“一带一路”沿线国家农产品虚拟水贸易的驱动因素

Driving factors for virtual water trade of agricultural products between China and countries along “Belt and Road”

基于虚拟水贸易的理论,分析2007—2016中国和“一带一路”沿线国家农产品虚拟水贸易现状,并利用拓展的引力模型对中国和“一带一路”沿线国家农产品虚拟水贸易的影响因素进行分析。结果表明,2007—2016年中国和“一带一路”沿线国家农产品虚拟水贸易为逆差,年均净进口量约为117.89亿m3。从影响中国和“一带一路”沿线国家农产品虚拟水贸易的因素来看,基础设施建设、汇率水平、加入世贸组织和区域一体化进程是最为显著的正向驱动因素,地理距离和关税水平是最重要的逆向驱动因素,我国在农业劳动力资源方面具有正向优势。

Based on the theory of virtual water trade,the status of the virtual water trade of agricultural product between China and the countries along“Belt and Road”during the period from 2007 to 2016 is analyzed.The relevant influencing factors are analyzed by using the extended gravity model.The results show that from 2007 to 2016,the virtual water volume of agricultural products trade between China and the countries along“Belt and Road”is a deficit,and the average annual net import volume is 11.789 billion m3.Among the influencing factors for the virtual water trade of agricultural products between China and the countries along“Belt and Road”,the most significant positive driving factors are infrastructure construction,exchange rate level,entry to WTO and regional integration process,and the most important reverse ones are geographic distance and tariff level.China has the positive advantages of agricultural labor.