基于验证性因素分析的台风风暴潮灾害经济损失影响因子优化分析

The optimal analysis of the impact factors of economic losses due to typhoon storm surge based on confirmatory factor analysis

建立客观有效的指标体系是精准估算台风风暴潮灾害经济损失的途径之一。本文以广东省为案例研究区,用验证性因素分析方法对影响灾害经济损失的危险性、脆弱性、抗灾能力3类风险要素进行指标甄别遴选,并将研究区按照经济发展条件分为3个时段,分别分析不同时段内各个风险要素指标的变化。研究表明,对于不同时段,各风险要素的影响指标变化不大,但与风险要素的关联程度会有差异。与传统的指标体系构建相比,本文结合历史案例构建备选指标更具有事实依据,并且利用验证性因素分析方法进行指标遴选,排除了人为主观因素的干扰,增强了指标与研究对象的关联度,减少了指标冗余,使得结果更具有合理性、科学性,为指标体系的研究提供了一个新的思路。

By establishing an objective and effective indicator system,we can accurately estimate the economic losses brought by typhoon storm surge.With Guangdong selected as the area for our case study,we used confirmatory factor analysis to identify and select three types of risk factors generating economic losses from such disasters:hazard,vulnerability,and disaster resilience.Moreover,by dividing the study area into three time periods based on economic development conditions,we analyzed the indicator changes in various risk factors within them.Studies have shown that impact indicators from various risk factors at different time periods have not changed significantly,while their degree of relevance have varied with each risk factor.Compared with the traditionally established indicator systems,the basic indicators based on historical cases in this paper are more factual,and the application of confirmatory factor analysis in the selection of indicators has eliminated the interference of subjective factors,the correlation between the indicators and the research object is enhanced,and the indicators redundancy is reduced,rendering the results more rational and scientific,and provides a new idea for the research of index system.