外部政治压力对人民币汇率的传导机制研究——基于市场预期的视角

The Transmission Mechanism of External Political Pressure on RMB Exchange Rate——Based on the Perspective of Market Expectation

中国长期保持的贸易顺差使人民币汇率承受着来自主要贸易伙伴国的政治施压。这些外部政治压力对人民币汇率存在着怎样的传导机制值得关注和研究。文章以美国为例,运用预测价值检验法验证市场预期在美国政治施压事件对人民币汇率传导机制中发挥的作用,以揭示外部政治压力对人民币汇率的可能的影响路径和传导机制。研究结果表明,外部政治压力主要通过市场层面和政策层面向人民币汇率传导,市场预期在两种传导机制中都发挥着重要作用;美国对人民币汇率的政治施压从总体上看具有预测价值,即外汇市场的参与者会因施压事件的发生而改变对人民币汇率变化趋势的预期从而影响人民币汇率的变动趋势;当人民币汇率处于贬值阶段时,美国政治施压事件更易于对市场预期产生影响。

The RMB exchange rate has been under political pressures from China’s major trading partners due to its long-standing trade surplus. More attention and researches are needed to determine the transmission mechanism of these external political pressures. Taking the US as an example,this paper resorts to the predictive value test method to verify the role of market expectation in the transmission mechanism of pressures exerted by US political events on the RMB exchange rate,so as to reveal the possible influence path and transmission mechanism of external political pressures on the RMB exchange rate. The results show that external political pressures transmit to the RMB exchange rate primarily at market and policy levels,and market expectation plays a crucial role in both transmission mechanisms;the political pressures exerted by the US on RMB exchange rate generally show a predictive value in both the RMB appreciation or depreciation period,that is,participants in the foreign exchange market will,due to occurrence of pressure events,change their expectation on the fluctuation trend of RMB exchange rate,thus affecting the trend;US political pressure events are more likely to have an impact on market expectations in the depreciation period of RMB exchange rate.