我国大都市区集聚与扩散的空间计量分析——基于空间面板数据

随着"疏散化"趋势的到来,我国大都市地区所呈现的集聚与扩散趋势逐渐明显。以我国128个大都市区为例,对其经济发展在空间上的集散特征进行空间自相关分析。全局莫兰指数表明,2000年至2017年我国大都市区经济发展整体上呈现显著的集聚特征,但是集聚程度呈现下降的趋势。从东中西和东北地区角度看,东部地区和东北地区均具有显著的扩散趋势,但是原因不同;中部大都市区的集聚程度具有下降的趋势;而西部大都市区具有显著集聚上升的趋势。空间计量分析结果表明,城市化率、人口规模和城镇居民人均可支配收入水平均对大都市区的经济增长率具有显著的空间正向关系,且居民人均收入水平对城市经济增长率的影响程度最大,大都市区之间经济发展的空间溢出效应较为显著,经济发展水平较高的大都市区辐射带动作用较强。最后,从顺应大都市区发展趋势、因地制宜制定城市发展规划以及合理分布人口规模和提高居民收入水平三个角度提出对策建议。

With the trend of"eviction",the agglomeration and diffusion trend of metropolitan areas in China are becoming more and more obvious.Taking 128 metropolitan areas in China as an example,the spatial distribution characteristics of economic development are analyzed by using spatial autocorrelation.The global Moran index indicates that the economic development of China’s metropolitan areas from 2000 to 2017 showed significant agglomeration characteristics,but the degree of agglomeration showed a downward trend.From the perspective of the eastern,central and northeastern regions,both the eastern and northeastern regions have significant diffusion trends,but the reasons are different;the concentration of central metropolitan areas has a decreasing trend;while the western metropolitan areas have a significant upward trend.The results of spatial econometric analysis show that the urbanization rate,the population size and the per capita disposable income level of urban residents have significant spatial positive relationship with the economic growth rate of metropolitan area,and the per capita income level of residents has the greatest impact on urban economic growth rate.And the spatial spillover effect of economic development between metropolitan areas is more obvious,and the radiation in the metropolitan areas with higher economic development level is stronger.Finally,the paper puts forward some countermeasures from the following aspects:adapting to the development trend of metropolitan area,making urban development planning according to local conditions,rationally distributing population scale,and improving residents’income level.