从新古典现实主义看平成时代日本的防卫政策变化——兼论日本的和平路线能坚持多久?

Changes in Japanese Defense Policy in the Heisei Era from the Neoclassical Realist Perspective:To What Extent Japan’s Pacifism Will Persist

运用新古典现实主义理论,以平成时代"本的防卫政策变化为分析对象,提出一个理论问题:"本平成时代的防卫政策变化,是被动因应威胁还是利用体系性契机主动调适目标和手段。通过对体制机制、军力结构等两个普遍性要素和"美安保体制、安保法制等两个特殊性要素的分析发现,冷战结束至今"本防卫政策的调整与发展,反映出"本政府具有明确主动意识与内因动力。不仅如此,平成时代"本防卫政策的调整与国家战略直接关联,对"本国家的未来走向产生了重要影响。

Based on the neoclassical realist paradigm,the article attempts to analyze changes of Japan’s defense policy in the Heisei era,in order to answer a theoretical question whether the changes of Japan’s defense policy are passive responses to threats or active adjustment of taking advantage of systematic opportunities and achieving goals of national strategyBy analyzing the general variables of defense policy such as institutional mechanism,military force structure as well as the special variables of Japan-USsecurity alliance and Japan’s security laws,it is pointed out that the adjustment of Japan’s defense policy since the end of the cold war reflects strong initiatives and political motivation of the Japanese governmentMoreover,the adjustment of Japan’s defense policy,directly related to the national strategy,has an important impact on the future trend of Japan.