中国征收碳税应对碳关税的经济分析——以美国为例

An economic analysis of China′s imposing carbon tax to respond to future carbon tariffs: Case study of USA

碳税和碳关税作为一种价格调整机制,长期而言会对经济系统中各主体产生较强的约束力。通过GTAP-E模型的模拟分析,得出以下结论:在目前的发展阶段,碳关税并非有效的低碳经济发展政策,尤其是美国对中国征收碳关税对降低世界碳排放量的影响有限;美国针对中国采取的碳关税政策将在一定程度上对我国出口贸易产生负向影响,尤其是对中国的高碳产业影响较大;当中美采取相同的碳税政策时,碳税的征收对中国GDP造成较大的负面影响,且中国自主采取节能减排方案不足以应对美国碳关税的负面效应;而当两者采取差异化政策时,中国主动采取节能减排行动可以有效应对美国碳关税的威胁。

As a price adjustment mechanism,carbon tax and carbon tariff will exert strong influence on current economic system in the long run.Here,through the simulation analysis using the GTAP-E model,we may conclude that:firstly,carbon tariffs are not effective low-carbon economic policies at the present stage,and it only showed limited reduction of the world carbon emissions by imposing carbon tariffs on China by the United States.Secondly,the carbon tariff policy adopted by the United States has negatively affected China′s export trade to a certain extent,especially for China′s high-carbon industries.Lastly,when China and the United States adopt the same carbon tax policy,the levy of carbon tax has a greater negative impact on China′s GDP.China′s active carbon emission reduction cannot cope with the negative impact of U.S.carbon tariffs.However,when the two countries adopt different policies,China′s active carbon emission reduction can cope with the threat of U.S.carbon tariffs effectively.