少数民族边疆地区民航客运与国际旅游间的动态影响研究

Study on the dynamic influence between civil aviation passenger transport and international tourism in border areas with concentrations of ethnic minorities

针对少数民族边疆地区发展国际旅游对民航客运的需求,以云南省为例,建立了入境旅游和民航客运之间的VAR模型,通过Johansen协整检验与Granger因果检验分析两者之间的长期均衡关系,并运用脉冲响应函数和方差分解的方法探究少数民族边疆地区民航客运与国际旅游的动态相关性。结果表明,云南国际旅游与民航客运之间存在协整关系并具有双向的Granger因果关系,即二者相辅相成且相互促进,并存在着长期稳定的均衡关系。同时发现,国际旅游收入和人次对民航指标的冲击响应累计值为正值,且民航客运对国际旅游发展的贡献率基本在50%以上,说明民航客运对少数民族边疆地区的国际旅游发展有着重要且持续性的促进作用。

With respect to the demand for civil aviation passenger transport in the development of international tourism in border areas with concentrations of ethnic minorities,this essay constructs the VAR model between inbound tourism and civil aviation passenger transport taking Yunnan province as an example. Moreover,it analyzes the long-term equilibrium relationship between the two factors using the Johansen cointegration test and Granger causality test analysis,and investigates the dynamic correlations between civil aviation passenger transport and international tourism in border areas with concentrations of ethnic minorities using the impulse response function and variance decomposition. Results show that there is a co-integration relationship,a two-way Granger causal relationship( the two factors complementing and promoting each other) and a long-term stable equilibrium relationship between international tourism and civil aviation passenger transport of Yunnan. At the same time,it was found that the cumulative impulse response of international tourism income and number of tourists to civil aviation indicators is positive,and the contribution rate of civil aviation passenger transport to international tourism development is basically more than 50%,indicating that civil aviation passenger transport plays an important and continuous role in promoting international tourism of border areas with concentrations of ethnic minorities.