中国木质家具出口贸易与汇率波动关系研究

Research on the Relationship between the Export Value of Wooden Furniture and RMB Exchange Rate

木质家具是我国最重要的出口林产品之一。人民币汇率改革后,人民币总体呈升值趋势,这一趋势提高了国产木质家具的出口价格,会产生阻碍出口的作用;与此同时其也会使进口原材料价格相对降低、促进原材料的进口,二者相互作用会共同影响木质家具出口额。通过建立回归模型,研究人民币汇率波动对中国木质家具出口贸易额的影响,结果表明人民币汇率与中国木质家具出口额呈负相关,但是通过人民币贬值来促进出口的策略并不明智。

Wooden furniture is one of the most important forest product exported from China. The exchange rate of RMB is generally increasing after China’s exchange reform, which raises the export price of wooden furniture made in China, and decreases its export volume. Meanwhile, the appreciating exchange rate also reduces the import price of the raw materials of the wooden furniture and increases its import volume. The comprehensive effect of the two is still an open question. Therefore, this article constructed a regression to investigate the effect from the fluctuation of RMB exchange rate to the export of wooden furniture. The results showed that a higher exchange rate decreases the total export value;while depreciation of RMB exchange rate is not a suggested strategy to promote the export of wooden furniture made in China.