中国对“一带一路”沿线直接投资的经济增长动态效果研究——基于理论模型和VAR模型的实证分析

A Study on the Dynamic Economic Growth Effect of China’s OFDI in the Countries and Regions Along “The Belt and Road”——An Empirical Analysis Based on Theoretical Model and VAR Model

本文以我国对"一带一路"沿线国家和地区直接投资的国内经济增长效应为出发点,选取沿线国家和地区直接投资和相关数据,相继构建理论模型和VAR模型,并运用协整检验、脉冲响应和格兰杰检验等方法探究了我国对"一带一路"沿线国家和地区直接投资的动态经济增长效应,以期明晰"一带一路"背景下我国对外直接投资对于国内经济增长的影响程度,挖掘和验证经济增长外部引擎路径与潜力,为国民经济持续稳定增长和经济结构调整提供智力支持。本文研究结果显示,长期中,我国对"一带一路"沿线国家和地区直接投资与经济增长间保持着正向均衡关系,而短期中,对沿线国家和地区直接投资引致的经济增长效果还比较微弱,有待合理规划产业投资布局以逐步释放在推动经济结构调整和保障经济持续增长方面的积极作用。

This paper selects the economic growth effect of China’s OFDI in"The Belt and The Road"region as a starting point,using relative regional OFDI and related data,building theoretical model and VECM model,using cointegration test,impulse response and Granger test method to explore the economic growth effect of China’s OFDI in"The Belt and The Road"region.In order to clarify the influence degree of China’s OFDI on domestic economic growth under the background of"The Belt and The Road",we explore and validate the external engine path and potential of economic growth,providing intellectual support for the sustained and steady growth of the national economy and the adjustment of economic structure.China’s OFDI in"The Belt and The Road"region and economic growth maintain a positive equilibrium relationship in the long term.In the short term,the economic growth effect of China’s OFDI is relatively weak,need to rationally plan investment layout to gradually release the positive effect on promoting the adjustment of economic structure and economic growth in security push.