科技金融发展对产业结构升级的影响研究

Relationship between the Development of Science and Technology Finance and the Upgrade of Industrial Structure

基于2005-2016年30个省际面板数据,运用空间面板模型和面板门槛模型研究科技金融发展对产业结构升级的影响。结果表明:产业结构升级具有增长惯性、空间溢出性和时空滞后性。无论短期还是长期,科技金融发展对产业结构升级均表现显著的正向直接效应和间接效应。在短期内,直接效应小于间接效应,而长期内,直接效应大于间接效应。科技金融发展与产业结构升级呈非线性关系;此外邻近地区和本地区的政府干预、城镇化、金融效率和金融开放均有利于促进本地区的产业结构升级。

Based on the 30 inter-provincial panel data from 2005 to 2016, the spatial panel model and panel threshold model were used to study the impact of technology finance development on industrial structure upgrading. The results show that the industrial structure upgrade has growth inertia, spatial spillover and space-time lag. Whether for the long-term or the short-term, the development of science and technology finance has a significantly positive direct effect or indirect effect on the upgrading of industrial structure. In the short term, the direct effect is less than the indirect effect, while in the long run, the direct effect is greater than the indirect effect. The development of science and technology finance has a nonlinear relationship with the upgrading of industrial structure;in addition, government intervention, urbanization, financial efficiency and financial opening in neighboring regions and local areas are conducive to the promotion of industrial structure upgrading in the region.