RCP情景下淮河上游气候及径流量变化

Changes of Climate and Runoff under the Representative Concentration Pathways Scenarios in the Upper Reaches of the Huaihe River

基于ISI-MIP(the inter-sectoral impact model inter-comparison project)推荐的5套"典型浓度路径"情景下的全球气候模式数据,驱动分布式水文模型SWIM模拟淮河上游王家坝水文站以上地区未来(2020-2050年)径流量,分析淮河上游气候要素及径流量变化。结果表明,未来RCP情景下,淮河上游王家坝水文站以上地区温度和降水与基准期(1986-2005年)相比均有增长,温度在RCP8.5情景下增长幅度最大,空间分布从西北到东南呈现出增加趋势;降水在RCP4.5情景下涨幅最明显,空间分布自北向南呈递减趋势。5个气候模式模拟淮河上游干流径流量和趋势时各有优劣,其中HadGEM2模式效果最优;到21世纪中期,RCP情景下淮河上游干流径流量与基准期相比呈现出上升趋势,涨幅均超过10%,RCP4.5情景下模拟径流量的年变化率及汛期径流涨幅最大。研究区未来枯水期水资源短缺现象将得到缓解但发生洪水尤其是极端洪水的可能性将加大。

Based on five global climate model data recommended by the inter-sectoral impact model inter-comparison project(ISI-MIP)under the representative concentration pathways scenarios,soil and water integrated model(SWIM)simulate the future runoff(2020-2050)in main stream of upper reaches of the Huaihe River.Also,an analysis was made on climatic factors and runoff changes.The result showed that in the future RCP scenario,the temperature and precipitation would increase compared with the reference period(1986-2005)in Wangjiaba hydrological station of the upper reaches of the Huaihe River.The temperature increased the most under the RCP8.5 scenario,and the spatial distribution showed an increasing trend from northwest to southeast.Precipitation increased most in RCP4.5 scenario,and the spatial distribution showed a decreasing trend from north to south.The five climate models had different advantages and disadvantages for simulating the runoff and trend of the upper reaches of the Huaihe River,and the HadGEM2 model had the best effect;By the middle of the 21 st century,the runoff under RCP scenarios would show an upward trend compared with the reference period,with an increase of more than 10%.Among them,the annual rate of change of runoff under the RCP4.5 scenario and the change rate of runoff in flood season increase the most.Water shortages in the dry season of the study area would be alleviated,but the possibility of floods would increase,especially extreme floods.