结构转型、经济下行与政策应对

STRUCTURAL TRANSFORMATION, ECONOMIC DOWNTURN AND POLICY RESPONSE

大多数衰退都是经济体系受到某种冲击的结果,通常被金融加速器放大,导致家庭和企业部门的资产负债表发生重大变化并持续恶化。但随着时间的推移,资产负债表会逐渐修复。银行系统也是如此。但有时候冲击是结构性的,带来的影响也更深远。发达国家在20世纪从农业向制造业转移以及从制造业向服务业转移的经济转型就带来了巨大冲击。这类冲击造成的经济衰退持续时间往往更长。政府通常的应对措施是实施货币政策,但效果十分有限。政策设计必须要促进经济转型,因为市场自身可能会失灵。本文通过研究大萧条时期的经验教训,分析了为什么经济转型与高失业率相关,以及需要什么样的政府政策,从而为当前发达国家和发展中国家的结构转型提供借鉴。

Most recessions are a result of some shock to the economic system,typically amplified by financial accelerators,and leading to large balance sheet effects of households and fi rms,which result in the effects persisting.But,over time,the balance sheets get restored.Even banks recover.But episodically,the“shock”is deeper.It is structural.Among advanced countries,the movement from agricultural to manufacturing in the last century,and the more recent movement from manufacturing to the service sector reflect such a large economic transformation.The associated downturns are longer lasting.The usual responses,in particular,monetary policy,are only of limited effi cacy.Policies have to be designed to facilitate such transformations:markets on their own typically do not do well.This paper explains why such transformations are associated with persistently high unemployment,and what kinds of government policies are needed.It looks at the lessons of the Great Depression both for the advanced countries and the developing countries today as they go through their structural transformations.